The United States and Iran have agreed to “stand down for now” in the Strait of Hormuz, a US official told CNN on Monday. The ceasefire has held for a few days. The ships still aren’t moving.

Only about five vessels a day are transiting the strait, compared to the normal rate of 93. Around 485 ships remain anchored or stranded across the region.

How we got here

Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026, after the US and Israel launched airstrikes against Iranian military targets. The strait handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, and the closure sent energy markets into a spiral before eventually stabilizing. Brent crude is trading around $74 right now, which analysts describe as relatively subdued given what’s happening.

On June 17, Trump and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war and reopen the waterway. Two days later, a renewed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was announced, with the US, Qatar, and Iran as facilitators.

Then Israel continued strikes in southern Lebanon. Iran said that violated the agreement and re-closed the strait. The US military denied the violations. The standoff escalated again.

Where things stand today

On June 27, the Joint Maritime Information Center, the US Navy’s coordination body for the region, announced a widened transit route near Oman, effectively challenging Iran’s control over the eastern approach to the strait. Iran has not formally accepted the alternate route.

As of Tuesday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry says it isn’t prepared to send negotiators to Qatar for formal talks until unspecified criteria are met. The US says the talks are still on the table.

Both sides are calling it a tactical pause. No one is calling it resolved.

What it means for oil and shipping

Brent crude sitting at $74 reflects how much of the shock the market has already absorbed. When the strait first closed in late February, prices spiked sharply. Four months in, traders have largely priced in the disruption.

The deeper problem is insurance and routing. Shipping companies rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope add roughly two weeks of transit time and significant fuel costs to every voyage that would normally pass through the Gulf. Some carriers have stopped taking Gulf contracts entirely.

The 485 stranded vessels represent a logjam that won’t clear overnight even if the strait fully reopens tomorrow.

What’s next

Iran holding back from Qatar talks is a pressure play. Witkoff, Trump’s envoy, was reported en route to Doha on June 29, which suggests the US side thinks the talks are still viable. The alternate route opened by the US Navy is a tactical escalation designed to show Iran the US won’t wait indefinitely.

If the ceasefire holds through this week, shipping companies may cautiously resume limited transits. If it breaks again, the market’s relative calm won’t last.

For more on the Hormuz situation, see our earlier coverage: The Strait of Hormuz Is Reopening. But 550 Ships Are Still Stuck and 80 Mines Remain.

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